A Simplified Risk Scoring System to Predict Mortality in Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit

Hendry Purnasidha Bagaswoto, Nahar Taufiq, Budi Yuli Setianto

Abstract


Background: Cardiovascular intensive care unit (CICU) is an area with high mortality rates globally. The prediction of inpatients mortality risk at CICU needs a simplified scoring systems. Hence, this study aims to analyze the predictors for in-hospital mortality of patients whom hospitalized at CICU of Sardjito General Hospital Yogyakarta and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis.

Methods: Data were obtained from SCIENCE (Sardjito Cardiovascular Intensive Care) registry. Outcomes of 595 consecutive patients (mean age 59.92 ± 13.0 years) from January to November 2017 were recorded retrospectively. Demography, risk factor, comorbidities, laboratory result and other examinations were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression to create two models of scoring system (probability and cut-off model) to predict in-hospital mortality of any cause.

Results: A total of 595 subjects were included in this research; death was found in 55 patients (9.2%). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed some variables that became independent predictor of mortality, i.e. age ≥ 60 years, pneumonia, the use of ventilator machine, and increased of serum glutamate-pyruvate transaminase level, an increased of creatinine level and an ejection fraction < 40%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed a cut-off model scoring system with score 3 to 9 predicting mortality compared to score 0 - 2. This model yielded sensitivity of 80% and specificity 74%. While the probability scoring system (score 0 to 9) showed that the higher the score, the higher the mortality probability (e.g. the mortality of patient with score 2 is 5.27%; while the mortality of patient with score 8 is 87.5%).

Conclusions: Scoring system derived from this study can be used to predict the in-hospital mortality of patients whom hospitalized in our CICU and show a favorable sensitivity and specificity result.




Cardiol Res. 2019;10(4):216-222
doi: https://doi.org/10.14740/cr884


Keywords


Scoring system; In-hospital mortality; CICU patients

Full Text: HTML PDF
 

Browse  Journals  

     

Journal of clinical Medicine Research

Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism

Journal of Clinical Gynecology and Obstetrics

World Journal of Oncology

Gastroenterology Research

Journal of Hematology

Journal of Medical Cases

Journal of Current Surgery

Clinical Infection and Immunity

Cardiology Research

World Journal of Nephrology and Urology

Cellular and Molecular Medicine Research

Journal of Neurology Research

International Journal of Clinical Pediatrics

 

 

 

 

 

Cardiology Research, bimonthly, ISSN 1923-2829 (print), 1923-2837 (online), published by Elmer Press Inc.            
The content of this site is intended for health care professionals.

This is an open-access journal distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, which permits unrestricted
non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Creative Commons Attribution license (Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International CC-BY-NC 4.0)


This journal follows the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) recommendations for manuscripts submitted to biomedical journals,
the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) guidelines, and the Principles of Transparency and Best Practice in Scholarly Publishing.

website: www.cardiologyres.org   editorial contact: editor@cardiologyres.org
Address: 9225 Leslie Street, Suite 201, Richmond Hill, Ontario, L4B 3H6, Canada

© Elmer Press Inc. All Rights Reserved.